The Coming Bomb from Helicopter Ben

At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 2nd and 3rd, the Federal Reserve may be ready to buy anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion of US Treasuries and mortgages from banks, financial institutions, and the open market, an operation generally known as printing money. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernancke, New York Fed President William Dudley, Chicago President Charles Evans, the Boston President, and others are targeting a 2% inflation rate (the CPI is now about 1%). Their hope is that unemployment will be substantially reduced, gross domestic product will increase, and hope and happiness will return. We think the size of this money-printing operation qualifies as a "bomb" to the markets. Here's five reasons why it's a bomb and won't work as planned.

An increase in the inflation rate quite possibly already in the pipeline. Since Chairman (Helicopter Ben) Bernancke announced his intentions at the August Jackson Hole Wyoming conference, prices for gold, oil, copper, steel, platinum and other precious commodities have risen substantially. These price increases will eventually find their way into the final cost of goods and services you and I buy. An inflation rate of 2% could happen without any further action by the Federal Reserve.

Limited inflation targeting will not work as shown by history. Former Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin retired in 1970, but during his tenure, he testified before the Senate Finance Committee, "There is no validity whatever in the idea that any inflation, once accepted, can be confined to moderate proportions." The experience of the 70's seems to support his statement. During the 50's and 60's it was thought that some inflation was good for the economy. Looks those who forgot history are putting forth again the idea that limited inflation is good.                       

Businesses won't borrow until they have confidence that other costs won't go up. The real problem that Federal Reserve money printing doesn't address is the reluctance of business owners to hire more workers and expand business until they know what the costs are going to be (such as health insurance) and what the income tax rate will be (such as the Bush tax cut extension). In addition, owners are struggling with new regulations imposed upon them

Banks won't lend.   Banks are building their capital bases and their lending standards have increased. Lending activity is down because of those reasons and providing more cash will not affect lending activity much if any.

The cost/benefit analysis doesn't support it. The Federal Reserve has modeled what would happen if they printed $500 billion of new money. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note would decrease by .15% or 15 basis points. Unemployment would decrease by 0.2%. GDP would increase by 0.2%. We would ask whether the cost of inflation to the United States as a whole is worth the benefits as modeled by the Fed.

What to do.. There are a number of strategies to combat inflation.  We like our 10% holding in a gold mining company mutual fund. We like stocks with pricing power and we like natural resource mutual funds. These are by no means an exclusive list. The markets have spoken during September regarding the fear of inflation and the message cannot be ignored.

Article written by John A Epeneter in October 2010